Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Kiyoshi Tanaka  Motoyoshi Ikeda  Yukio Masumoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(2):283-291

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

一种计算台风风场的方法     

陈孔沫 《热带海洋学报》1994,(2)

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。  相似文献   

固定式海洋平台利用TLD的减震研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

李宏男  马百存 《海洋工程》1996,(3)

本文研究固定式海洋平台利用调谐液体阻尼器（ＴｕｎｅｄＬｉｑｕｉｄＤａｍｐｅｒ，简称ＴＬＤ）减小地震反应的方法。首先探讨了调谐频率比、激磁频率比对减震效果的影响，在此基础上建立了ＴＬＤ——平台系统的力学模型和运动方程，通过数值计算验证了该方法的有效性  相似文献   

Long-Term Effect of TMD on Vibration Control of An MDOF Offshore Fixed Platform     

SHI  Xiang 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(4):481-494

A three-dimensional fixed offshore platform in deep water modeled by the finite element method is studied in this paper. Analysis of the dynamic response of the MDOF structure is realized taking the non-linearity of the wave drag force and the wave-structure interaction into account. The structural response statistics, which have Gaussian distributions, are used to evaluate the vibration effect of the structure without TMD and with TMD. And an optimal method to design TMD controlling the first mode of the multi-mode structure is proposed. Moreover, the probabilities of occurrence of sea states at the platform site are considered for prediction of the long-term effect of a TMD. Simulation results demonstrate that the long-term effect of a well-designed TMD is good and the practical use is possible due to the good stability of its optimal parameters under different sea states.  相似文献   

Spectral Analysis of Nonlinear Drag Forces     

马汝建  李桂喜赵东 《中国海洋工程》2005,19(2):325-332

The spectral properties of nonlinear drag forces of random waves on vertical circular cylinders are analyzed in this paper by means of nonlinear spectral analysis. The analysis provides basic parameters for estimation of the characteristic drag forces. Numerical computation is also performed for the investigation of the effects of nonlinearity of the drag forces.The results indicate that the wave drag forces calculated by linear wave theory are larger than those calculated by the third order Stokes wave theory for given waves. The difference between them increases with wave height. The wave drag forces calculated by use of hnear approximation are about 5% smaller than their actual values when measured in the peak values of spectral densities. This will result in a safety problem for the design of offshore structures. Therefore, the nonlinear effect of wave drag forces should be taken into comidemtion in design and application of important offshore structures.  相似文献   

A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures     

李典庆  张圣坤  唐文勇 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…  相似文献   

Neural Network-Based Active Control for Offshore Platforms     

周亚军  赵德有 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionWiththedevelopmentofoceantechnology ,moreandmoreextremelylargeandlongflexibleoff shoreplatformsusedforoilexplorationanddrillingoperationarebuiltinhostileoceanenvironments .Ingeneral,thiskindofplatformsisanonlineardistributedparametersystemanditsnaturalfrequencyfallsclosertothedominantwavefrequencieswiththeincreaseofwaterdepth .Besides ,itsstructureisverycomplexandtheexternalwaveforceontheplatformisuncertain .Thus ,theseplatformsarepronetoexcessivewave inducedoscillationsunderbot…  相似文献   

Seismic Response Control of Offshore Platform Structures with Shape Memory Alloy Dampers     

李宏男何晓宇  霍林生 《中国海洋工程》2005,19(2):185-194

In this study, the seismic response control of offshore platform structures with Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) dampers is investigated. A new SMA damper and its restoring force medel are introduced for the calculation of seismic response reduction. Based on an actual platform structure and its mechanical medel, the parameters which may affect the rate of shock absorption are analyzed, such as the number, position and characteristics of the SMA dampers and the condition of the site where the platform is located. The results show that the SMA damper is an effective control device for offshore platforms and satisfactory control can be achieved by proper selection of the parameters.  相似文献   

东海区近海强风预报模式     

杨良华 《海洋预报》1995,12(4):34-42

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。  相似文献   

南麂站定常波风浪波高与风速的经验关系     

黄树生 《海洋学研究》1994,12(4):1-8

本文以南麂海洋站１９８３～１９９０年风、浪的实测资料为依据，建立了南麂海城春、夏、秋、冬季定常波风浪波高与风速的经验关系式。检验结果表明，曲线回归显著，计算值与实测值吻合良好。文中还对偏ＮＮＥ向和偏ＳＳＷ向计算波高随风速增大的快慢，同一方向在同一风速作用下计算波高的季节变化及其机理作了初浅的讨论。  相似文献